‘Prism’ for the meso-level: do the cyclical patterns at the national and regional levels coincide?

The purpose of the study is to determine the most relevant method of a time series analysis to identify the cyclicality in the development of regional economies. In pursuit of the goal, a comparative approach was employed, focusing on the utilization of Gross Regional Product (GRP) indicators from the regions within the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. Statistical and econometric methods were also employed to analyze the changes in these indicators over time (from 1998 to 2019). The relevance of this study manifests in its capacity to elucidate the cyclic processes within the development of regional economies, thereby enabling the identification of strategies to influence them toward the attainment of sustainable and balanced development goals. The study revealed that the majority of the examined regions remain in the lowest quartile of Gross Regional Product (GRP), while two regions consistently feature in the highest GRP quartile. The research findings hold practical implications for policy decisions and regional development strategies, aiding in understanding economic dynamics and supporting the implementation of effective management measures to bolster regional development. Based on the research findings, it is recommended to intensify support for regions with low GDP by providing additional investments and infrastructural development, as well as adapting successful development strategies. Political decisions should be grounded in cyclical trends, taking into account the needs and opportunities of each region. Future research efforts may focus on refining the spectral analysis method for a more precise and reliable analysis of GRP dynamics at the regional level.This research has shown that the distribution of growth in the gross regional product is not statistically normal and therefore it is necessary to complement traditional narrative statistics with other methods. The results of our spectral analysis confirmed our hypothesis about the usefulness of this method. An introduced model for spectral analysis of GRP treats it as a specific case of the regression model using discrete Fourier transformation. Considering the persistent trend of low levels of regional product in certain regions juxtaposed with consistently high levels in others, we recommend the development of a national strategy encompassing specialized programs to support and foster the regions in the lowest quartile of regional product. Policymakers should actively incentivize investments in regions with low levels of regional product, directing financial and other resources to bolster economic growth and infrastructural development.