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Uncertainty in decision-making: A review of the international business literature

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  • Sniazhana Sniazhko

Abstract

Uncertainty is a key contextual factor that affects the decision-making of multinational corporations on many types of international operation. However, the variety of ways in which uncertainty has been defined and studied in the international business literature, has contributed to a fragmented view of MNC behavior and of the role of uncertainty in international decision-making. Adopting a broad view of uncertainty, and by means of a systematic review, this paper examines the treatment of uncertainty in international decision-making in the IB literature and identifies directions for future research. The review organizes studies across 13 dimensions of uncertainty and eight approaches to managing it. The paper further identifies five characteristics of individual decision-makers that have been shown to impact their perceptions of uncertainty and their choice of uncertainty management approach. Based on this systematic review, the paper makes three main critical observations about existing research: inconsistency in the conceptualization and measurement of uncertainty, lack of diversity regarding the dimensions of uncertainty included in single studies, and downplaying the role of individual decision-makers. A research agenda is presented that offers suggestions on how future research might address these limitations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sniazhana Sniazhko, 2019. "Uncertainty in decision-making: A review of the international business literature," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1650692-165, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oabmxx:v:6:y:2019:i:1:p:1650692
    DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2019.1650692
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    Cited by:

    1. Mian Numan Raheem & M. Adrees, 2021. "The Effect of Risk and Uncertainty Factors on Managerial Decision Making," Journal of Education and Vocational Research, AMH International, vol. 12(1), pages 30-37.
    2. Ebrahim Endris & Andualem Kassegn, 2022. "The role of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to the sustainable development of sub-Saharan Africa and its challenges: a systematic review of evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Hartwell, Christopher A. & Devinney, Timothy, 2021. "Populism, political risk, and pandemics: The challenges of political leadership for business in a post-COVID world," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4).
    4. Doyeon Lee & Keunhwan Kim, 2022. "National Investment Framework for Revitalizing the R&D Collaborative Ecosystem of Sustainable Smart Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, May.
    5. Staneiu Roxana-Maria, 2022. "Psychological Safety as a catalyst for Knowledge Sharing," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 98-108, August.
    6. Linus Chesoli Wekesa & Jackson Maalu & James Gathungu & Gituro Wainaina, 2023. "Mediating Effect of Competitive Strategy Between Entrepreneur Characteristics and the Performance of Non-timber Forest Product SMEs in Kenya," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 4293-4317, December.
    7. Gregorio Silao Ochavillo, 2020. "A Paradigm Shift of Learning in Maritime Education amidst COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Higher Education, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(6), pages 164-164, December.
    8. Suzuki, Kenya & Wada, Ryota & Konno, Yoshihiro & Hiekata, Kazuo & Nanjo, Takashi & Nagakubo, Sadao, 2024. "Impact of epistemic uncertainty on tradeoff in model-based decision support for methane hydrate development system design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    9. Sharma, Piyush & Leung, T.Y. & Kingshott, Russel P.J. & Davcik, Nebojsa S. & Cardinali, Silvio, 2020. "Managing uncertainty during a global pandemic: An international business perspective," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 188-192.
    10. Jens Poeppelbuss & Martin Ebel & Jürgen Anke, 2022. "Iterative uncertainty reduction in multi-actor smart service innovation," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 32(2), pages 599-627, June.
    11. Simpson, Joseph J. & Sariol, Marcie, 2022. "Uncertainty, entrepreneurial orientation, and the pursuit of M&A: Managing the unpredictable," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 423-434.

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