Coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies, land finance behavior and risk prevention in the real estate market

This paper measures the real estate market risk in China by embedding the relative volatility of stock returns in the real estate industry into the Marginal Expected Shortfall Model. Subsequently, we examine the effectiveness of the coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies in preventing real estate market risk based on panel data from cities. Additionally, we investigate the impact of local government’s land finance behavior on the effectiveness of the coordination of these two policies. The results show that the tightening monetary policy can strengthen the restraining effect of macroprudential policy on real estate market risk. From the perspective of risk prevention in the real estate market, whether it is a quantitative or price-based monetary policy tool, land finance behavior can weaken the regulatory effect of the coordination of monetary and macroprudential policies. Moreover, this weakening effect is more pronounced in the regions with high vertical fiscal imbalance and intense economic competition. One of the important policy implications is that regulatory authorities should strengthen the coordination among local fiscal behavior, monetary policy, and macroprudential policy. This will enhance the effectiveness of the coordination of monetary policy and macroprudential policy to prevent risks in the real estate market.