IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/nzecpp/v56y2022i1p55-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economic risk from COVID-19 in Pacific Island countries: very few infections but lots of pain

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Noy
  • Nguyen Doan
  • Tauisi Taupo

Abstract

We forecast the economic loss from COVID-19 in Pacific Island countries using pre-pandemic data. Applying a risk measure proposed by Noy et al. (2020a. Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID-19. Global Policy. Forthcoming), we use pre-COVID data to compute principal component indices for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience to COVID risk in the Pacific. We rank all the Pacific Island Countries according to their risk profile. Alternatively, we use the concept of Lost Life-Years (LLY), developed in Noy (2016. A Global Comprehensive Measure of the Impact of Natural Hazards and Disasters. Global Policy, 7(1), 56–65), and derived from the World Health Organization’s Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) method. We use the calculations of LLY to examine economic loss based on the forecasted losses associated with the declines in tourism, and with future growth, as predicted by the Asian Development Bank. The ranking of risk across the Pacific countries for each of these alternative measures is then compared.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Tauisi Taupo, 2022. "The economic risk from COVID-19 in Pacific Island countries: very few infections but lots of pain," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 55-66, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:56:y:2022:i:1:p:55-66
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00779954.2020.1827016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:56:y:2022:i:1:p:55-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RNZP20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.