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Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models

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  • Christopher Ball
  • John Creedy

Abstract

This paper considers the extent to which the standard argument, that the disproportionate excess burden of taxation suggests the use of tax smoothing in the face of future cost increases, is modified by uncertainty regarding the future. The role of uncertainty and risk aversion is examined using several highly simplified models involving a possible future contingency requiring an increase in tax-financed expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:48:y:2014:i:2:p:240-253
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2013.874401
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    2. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2004. "Pre-funding Expenditure on Health and Long-term Care under Demographic Uncertainty," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 620-639, October.
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    4. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
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    6. David K. Backus & Bryan R. Routledge & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 319-414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
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    10. Selden, Larry, 1978. "A New Representation of Preferences over "Certain A Uncertain" Consumption Pairs: The "Ordinal Certainty Equivalent" Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1045-1060, September.
    11. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    13. repec:bla:ausecr:v:37:y:2004:i:4:p:454-464 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. Alex Armstrong & Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Ed Westerhout, 2007. "Fiscal prefunding in response to demographic uncertainty," CPB Discussion Paper 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    2. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Palmer, Carolyn, 2014. "'Flood and fire and famine': Tax policy lessons from the Australian responses to natural disasters," Working Paper Series 18858, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    4. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    5. Matthew Bell & Paul Rodway, 2014. "Treasury's 2013 long-term fiscal statement: Assumptions and projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 139-152, August.
    6. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2018. "The Timing of Income Tax Changes in the Face of Projected Debt Increases," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(2), pages 191-210, June.
    7. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 7693, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    9. Palmer, Carolyn, 2014. "'Flood and fire and famine': Tax policy lessons from the Australian responses to natural disasters," Working Paper Series 3718, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    10. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 20848, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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