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Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting

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  • Masayuki Kakehashi

Abstract

Realistic models have a larger number of parameters than simple models do. In such realistic models some of the parameter values will be less realistic because of the availability and the difficulty in estimation. On the contrary, a simple model with a smaller number of parameters of which reliable values are available can make reliable prediction if the simple model has involved the essential structure of phenomena. In this paper we propose a simple pair formation model for HIV spread by heterosexual transmission. By setting the parameters involved in the model as close as the actual situation in Japan, we examined whether the outcome is consistent with the observation. The outcome suggested plausible range for some unknown parameters. How to deal with inevitably ambiguous parameters is discussed. The model is ready to be used for other countries than Japan and the validity of such an analysis is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Masayuki Kakehashi, 2000. "Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 279-292.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:279-292
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John R. Williams & Roy M. Anderson, 1994. "Mathematical Models of the Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales: Mixing between Different Risk Groups," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 157(1), pages 69-87, January.
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