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Multistate models of postpartum infecundity, fecundability and sterility by age and parity: Methodological issues

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  • Anatoli Yashin
  • Ivan Iachine
  • Kirill Andreev
  • Ulla Larsen

Abstract

How do hidden physiological processes influence estimates of fecundability and sterility? Does unobserved heterogeneity play a role in these estimates? To address these questions mathematical models of the reproductive process are needed. It is not well known how to evaluate characteristics of reproductive models based on observed reproductive history data, and such models may not be identifiable without ancillary information. However, little is known about how to introduce ancillary information into reproductive models. Furthermore, even if such information was involved, the use of standard software packages for maximization of the likelihood function is often not feasible, because the function cannot be represented in an explicit parametric form. In this paper we propose an approach which represents the likelihood function in a form useful for further analysis. This approach is based on multistate models of the basic physiological processes that influence reproductive outcomes, and it is suitable in applications where ancillary information is given in the form of hazard rates. As an alternative, a competing risks model with incomplete information is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Anatoli Yashin & Ivan Iachine & Kirill Andreev & Ulla Larsen, 1998. "Multistate models of postpartum infecundity, fecundability and sterility by age and parity: Methodological issues," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 51-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:51-78
    DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ulla Larsen & Jane Menken, 1991. "Individual-level sterility: A new method of estimation with application to sub-saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(2), pages 229-247, May.
    2. James Wood & Darryl Holman & Anatoli Yashin & Raymond Peterson & Maxine Weinstein & Ming-Cheng Chang, 1994. "A Multistate model of fecundability and sterility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 403-426, August.
    3. Ulla Larsen & James Vaupel, 1993. "Hutterite fecundability by age and parity: Strategies for frailty modeling of event histories," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(1), pages 81-102, February.
    4. Ulla Larsen & Jane Menken, 1989. "Measuring sterility from incomplete birth histories," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(2), pages 185-201, May.
    5. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anatoly I. Yashin & Igor Akushevich & Konstantin G. Arbeev & Alexander Kulminski & Svetlana Ukraintseva, 2011. "Joint Analysis of Health Histories, Physiological State, and Survival," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 207-233, October.
    2. David Dunson, 2003. "Incorporating heterogeneous intercourse records into time to pregnancy models," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 127-143.

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