Population displacement from Puerto Rico to the US states following Hurricane Maria

Population displacement from Puerto Rico to the United States following Hurricane Maria is considered and distinguished from ongoing outmigration from the island. Administrative data from two sources is used to estimate displacement with a capture-recapture method which, unlike existing estimates, excludes outmigration that occurs independent of the hurricane. The estimates are compared with preceding trends in outmigration from the US Census Bureau. The results show that nearly 90,000 individuals or about 2.7% of Puerto Ricans (95% CI: 2.5%, 2.9%) were displaced through May 2018. Displacement was highest (approximately 4.7%) from southeastern Puerto Rico where the hurricane made landfall and, counter to earlier outmigration patterns indicated by data from the American Community Survey, was comparatively low from the region near San Juan (4.0% pre-hurricane outmigration against 2.4% post-hurricane displacement). Displacement rates were higher in areas with higher levels of Federal Emergency Management Agency-certified damage to housing (3.3% in areas with high damage against 2.2% in areas with low damage) but did not consistently differ by indicators of socioeconomic disadvantage, including poverty and unemployment rates. Households’ intent to return indicates that those who will not return are more likely to be younger or be unemployed (86% of individuals under the age of 30 will not return, whereas 58% of individuals aged 65 and up will not return, and 84% of employed households will return, whereas 68% of unemployed ones will); these characteristics align with those commonly observed among outmigrants in the decade prior to the hurricane.