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Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States

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  • Robert McNown

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series models of fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McNown, 2003. "Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 99-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:99-126
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480306712
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