A system dynamics-based approach for risk analysis of waterway transportation in a mixed traffic environment

The rapid development of high techniques in recent years has made the operation of intelligent ships a possible option in foreseeable future. This will inevitably change the navigation environment of ships. Both conventional and intelligent ships will sail in the same channels and water areas. This research proposed a framework to meet the needs of future waterway transportation safety in such a mixed environment. The proposed framework can model and assess the risk of inland waterway transportation in a mixed traffic environment of remote-control and conventional ships. It defined four stages of the mixed traffic scenario in inland rivers, including perception, cognition, decision, and control stage. On this basis, we explored the risk factors under mixed traffic scenario, and construct the system dynamics model of transportation risk accordingly. A case study of risk modelling and assessment of inland waterway transportation systems in continuous bridge areas under the mixed environment was conducted to validate the proposed method. The results showed that the proposed framework can identify the main stages and key factors affecting inland waterway transportation system safety under the mixed traffic environment. This research provides a theoretical basis for the safety supervision of remotely controlled ship operations in future.