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Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios

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  • Xiao Ruan
  • Yapa Mahinda Bandara
  • Jun-Yeop Lee
  • Paul Tae-Woo Lee
  • Prem Chhetri

Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold: the first is to assess the extent to which current port development initiatives contribute to securing the status of the Port of Colombo as a regional transshipment (T/S) hub to serve the Indian subcontinent; and the second is to generate plausible future development scenarios for the maritime industry in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A scenario analysis method is applied to examine the past trends and to build future development scenarios. The results showed that major Indian ports have experienced a significant growth in cargo volumes and vessel traffic. South and East Indian coastal ports continue to use the Port of Colombo as a T/S port in tandem with the corridors connected to the Indian Ocean. Scenario analysis highlights the growing importance of BRI-centric land-based economic corridors, which would generate a large amount of cargos from hinterlands up to China. This would be further fueled through the Great Mekong region-driven industrialization, which would add to the west-bound maritime cargo volume. The paper concludes that the increased capital influx from China would more likely to result in a substantial development of the present port and road/rail infrastructure in Sri Lanka.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Ruan & Yapa Mahinda Bandara & Jun-Yeop Lee & Paul Tae-Woo Lee & Prem Chhetri, 2019. "Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(8), pages 905-919, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:46:y:2019:i:8:p:905-919
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2019.1594425
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Paul Tae-Woo & Hu, Zhi-Hua & Lee, Sangjeong & Feng, Xuehao & Notteboom, Theo, 2022. "Strategic locations for logistics distribution centers along the Belt and Road: Explorative analysis and research agenda," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 24-47.
    2. Vishal Kashav & Chandra Prakash Garg & Rupesh Kumar, 2023. "Ranking the strategies to overcome the barriers of the maritime supply chain (MSC) of containerized freight under fuzzy environment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 324(1), pages 1223-1268, May.
    3. Hannes Thees, 2020. "Towards Local Sustainability of Mega Infrastructure: Reviewing Research on the New Silk Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Goh, Mark & Sheu, Jiuh-Biing, 2021. "Multimodal transportation network centrality analysis for Belt and Road Initiative," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Efimova Elena & Vroblevskaya Svetlana, 2019. "Are Eastern Baltic Ports the drivers of Eurasian trade?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(3), pages 268-281, September.
    6. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Kenku, Oluwademilade T. & Ajayi, Oluwafisayo F., 2023. "China's technological spillover effect on the energy efficiency of the BRI countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    7. Fu, Yaping & Wu, Di & Wang, Yan & Wang, Hongfeng, 2020. "Facility location and capacity planning considering policy preference and uncertain demand under the One Belt One Road initiative," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 172-186.
    8. Zijie Yang & Dong Huang & Yanzhen Wang, 2023. "Measuring the Bilateral Energy Security Cooperation Sustainability between China and Its Neighboring Countries Based on the National Energy Security Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Schulhof, Vera & van Vuuren, Detlef & Kirchherr, Julian, 2022. "The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): What Will it Look Like in the Future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Anna Visvizi & Miltiadis D. Lytras & Peiquan Jin, 2019. "Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): New Forms of International and Cross-Industry Collaboration for Sustainable Growth and Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-5, December.
    11. Zihao Ma & Jiahong Guo & Duanyang Xu & Shixiong Cao, 2025. "Towards common development through China’s Belt and Road Initiative," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, February.

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