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Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

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  • Andreas G. Merikas
  • Anna A. Merika
  • George Koutroubousis

Abstract

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but (a) the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and (b) the movement of this ratio. We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal. We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes--VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize--and implement an error correction model. The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level. Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas G. Merikas & Anna A. Merika & George Koutroubousis, 2008. "Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 433-447, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:35:y:2008:i:5:p:433-447
    DOI: 10.1080/03088830802352053
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    2. Keun-Sik Park & Young-Joon Seo & A-Rom Kim & Min-Ho Ha, 2018. "Ship Acquisition of Shipping Companies by Sale & Purchase Activities for Sustainable Growth: Exploratory Fuzzy-AHP Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Theodore Syriopoulos & Michael Tsatsaronis & Ioannis Karamanos, 2021. "Support Vector Machine Algorithms: An Application to Ship Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 55-87, January.
    4. Fan, Lixian & Li, Ziyan & Xie, Jiaqi & Yin, Jingbo, 2023. "Container ship investment Decisions―Newbuilding vs second-hand vessels," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Lixian Fan & Meifeng Luo, 2013. "Analyzing ship investment behaviour in liner shipping," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 511-533, November.
    6. Mo, Jixian & Gao, Ruobin & Fai Yuen, Kum & Bai, Xiwen, 2024. "Predictive analysis of sell-and-purchase shipping market: A PIMSE approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Fan, Lixian & Gu, Bingmei & Yin, Jingbo, 2021. "Investment incentive analysis for second-hand vessels," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 215-225.
    8. Sinem Celik Girgin & Thanasis Karlis & Hong-Oanh Nguyen, 2018. "A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Ying Kou & Meifeng Luo, 2016. "Strategic capacity competition and overcapacity in shipping," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 389-406, May.
    10. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2017. "Herd behavior in the drybulk market: an empirical analysis of the decision to invest in new and retire existing fleet capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-51.
    11. Görçün, Ömer Faruk, 2022. "A novel integrated MCDM framework based on Type-2 neutrosophic fuzzy sets (T2NN) for the selection of proper Second-Hand chemical tankers," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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