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The impact of trade war on the ASEAN-4 economy

Author

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  • Ahmad Heri Firdaus
  • Ely Nurhayati
  • Ariyo Dharma Phala Irhamna

Abstract

The paper analyzes the economic consequences of the US–China trade war on economics in ASEAN-4. The analysis uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The simulation scenarios depicted short-run potential effects of manufacturing protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. The results showed escalation of trade wars has an impact on various countries, that is on exports, investment and domestic-sector growth. The US and China trade war has resulted in shifts in US imports by country of origin, Indonesia’s GDP and investments have increased, but are still relatively lower compared to other ASEAN-4 countries (Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam)

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Heri Firdaus & Ely Nurhayati & Ariyo Dharma Phala Irhamna, 2022. "The impact of trade war on the ASEAN-4 economy," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 231-245, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:15:y:2022:i:3:p:231-245
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2021.1911463
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