Promising Performance: The Overestimation and Underestimation of Performance Targets

This study examines goal setting in the federally funded, state-implemented Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Specifically, using federally determined criteria that states are supposed to use to set expected performance targets, I model the predicted performance targets and compare them against the observed performance targets. The purpose is to examine the determinants of performance target overestimation and underestimation in the WAP. The findings suggest that, where credible commitment to achieving performance targets is important (i.e., when grantees want to show top performance to attract grant money and federal partners), grantee governments are more likely to underestimate goals. However, where the aspirational nature of performance targets is more important than the credible commitment of achieving them (i.e., in an election year or partisan congruence with federal government), grantee governments are more likely to overestimate goals.