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Thinking the unthinkable -- the end of the Dutch river dike system? Exploring a new safety concept for the river management

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  • Bert Enserink

Abstract

Since 1100 the Dutch relied on their continuously expanding extensive dike system for keeping dry feet and dry goods. But how durable and safe is this traditional dike concept, now the sea-level is rising and rainfall patterns seem to change? Can they continue to raise their dikes in the future or should they give more room to the river? In the Dutch mind higher dikes are saver. In practice, however, higher dikes may lead to higher risks as the consequences of failure rise. What is wrong with the risk perception of the Dutch citizen? How should risks be communicated to the public, how should a public debate on safety regimes be organized? In a study project a new safety concept in which the Dutch rivers got a free flow was explored and communicated. In an effort to reframe the issue a transition path, scenarios, impact studies and ex ante evaluations of this new safety management regime were made. A new safety paradigm seems to be taking shape. Context scenarios show under what circumstances frequent flooding can be made acceptable to the Dutch citizen and the inhabitants of the Dutch polders.

Suggested Citation

  • Bert Enserink, 2004. "Thinking the unthinkable -- the end of the Dutch river dike system? Exploring a new safety concept for the river management," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7-8), pages 745-757, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:7:y:2004:i:7-8:p:745-757
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870210166185
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    Cited by:

    1. T E van der Lei & B Enserink & W A H Thissen & G Bekebrede, 2011. "How to use a systems diagram to analyse and structure complex problems for policy issue papers," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(7), pages 1391-1402, July.
    2. Anna Scolobig & B. Marchi & M. Borga, 2012. "The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 499-520, September.
    3. Anna Scolobig & Vanesa Castán Broto & Aiora Zabala, 2008. "Integrating Multiple Perspectives in Social Multicriteria Evaluation of Flood-Mitigation Alternatives: The Case of Malborghetto-Valbruna," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 26(6), pages 1143-1161, December.

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