Government trust in turbulence: how do natural disasters affect public risk perception in China？

In the context of frequent natural disasters, the public’s perception of risk has emerged as a critical social concern. This research, informed by the Social Amplification of Risk framework, delves into the influence of natural disaster shocks on the public’s risk perception, with a particular focus on the mediating role of government trust levels within China’s tiered system of trust. By leveraging micro-data from the Chinese Social Survey and macro-data on socio-economic progress spanning 2013, 2017, and 2021, empirical research has delineated a significant spillover effect of natural disaster shocks on the positive influence of public disaster risk perception. This impact transcends the risk perception of disasters, further amplifying the public’s awareness of societal risks, with the caveat that such spillover effects are finite in extent. Further mechanistic analyses reveal that government trust is crucial to mediating the relationship between disaster shocks and disaster/social risk perception. While grassroots and local government trust partially mediate this relationship, natural disaster shocks have no statistically significant indirect effect on public risk perception through central government trust. These findings underscore the externalities of risk shocks on public risk perceptions and provide valuable insights for enhancing the natural disaster preparedness system and promoting comprehensive natural disaster preparedness across society.