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Does the COVID-19 pandemic refute probability neglect?

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  • Arkadiusz Sieroń

Abstract

Cass Sunstein coined the term ‘probability neglect’ to characterize the cognitive bias of disregarding probability when assessing low-probability but high-impact threats. He also related this cognitive bias to terrorism risk, andapplied the concept to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, I show that such claims are not justified. I argue that an alternative hypothesis could be that people who downplay the epidemiological threat and do not take precautionary measures suffer from exponential-growth bias. I also show that probability theory, and thus the concept of probability neglect, cannot be easily applied to real-world problems, such as terrorist attacks or pandemics, occurring in a non-ergodic, uncertain environment.

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  • Arkadiusz Sieroń, 2020. "Does the COVID-19 pandemic refute probability neglect?," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7-8), pages 855-861, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:23:y:2020:i:7-8:p:855-861
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2020.1772346
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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandar S. Mojašević & Dejan Vučetić & Jelena Vučković & Stefan Stefanović, 2022. "Behavioral Approach to the COVID-19 Vaccination Policy: An Empirical Study in Serbia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.

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