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Argument-based decision support for risk analysis

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  • Sven Ove Hansson
  • Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn

Abstract

The calculation of statistical expectation values is a most useful tool in risk analysis, but it is not a panacea. Valuable additional decision support can be obtained from argument-based tools, i.e. rigorous tools based on conceptual distinctions and logical reasoning. If the decision problem is not well defined, then argument-based tools can be used to analyse the uncertainties involved and provide a more well-reasoned presentation of the problem. If the available information is insufficient for a reliable quantitative analysis, then argument-based tools can partly replace it as guidance for the decision-making process. Argument-based tools can be grouped into three main categories: (1) tools used to determine the impact of alternative structurings of decisions and to make an informed choice among them, (2) tools used for the evaluation of decision options, and (3) tools used for the choice among such options in terms of the relative strengths of the arguments that speak for and against each of the options.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Ove Hansson & Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn, 2018. "Argument-based decision support for risk analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 1449-1464, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:21:y:2018:i:12:p:1449-1464
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2017.1313767
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    Cited by:

    1. Alptekin Ulutaş & Darjan Karabasevic & Gabrijela Popovic & Dragisa Stanujkic & Phong Thanh Nguyen & Çağatay Karaköy, 2020. "Development of a Novel Integrated CCSD-ITARA-MARCOS Decision-Making Approach for Stackers Selection in a Logistics System," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-15, October.

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