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Imaginable surprise in global change science

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  • Stephen H Schneider
  • B. L. Turner
  • Holly Morehouse Garriga

Abstract

Decisionmakers at all scales (individuals, firms, and local, national, and international governmental organizations) are concerned about reducing their vulnerability to (or the likelihood of) unexpected events, 'surprises.' After briefly and selectively reviewing the literature on uncertainty and surprise, we adopt a definition of 'surprise' that does not include the strict requirement that it apply to a wholly unexpected outcome, but rather recognizes that many events are often anticipated by some, even if not most observers. Thus, we define 'imaginable surprise' as events or processes that depart from the expectations of some definable community. Therefore, what gets labelled as 'surprise' depends on the extent to which what happens departs from community expectations and on the salience of the problem. We offer a typology of surprise that distinguishes imaginable surprises from risk and uncertainty, and develops several kinds of impediments to overcoming ignorances. These range from the need for more 'normal science' to phenomenological impediments (e.g., inherentunpredictability in some chaotic systems) to epistemological ignorance (e.g., ideological blocks to reducing ignorance). Based on the input of some two dozen scholars at an Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Workshop in 1994 *, we construct two tables in which participants offer many possible 'imaginable surprises' in the global change context, as well as their potential salience for creating unexpectedly high or low carbon dioxide emissions. Improving the anticipation of surprises is an interdisciplinary enterprise that should offer a sceptical welcoming of outlier ideas and methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen H Schneider & B. L. Turner & Holly Morehouse Garriga, 1998. "Imaginable surprise in global change science," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 165-185, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:1:y:1998:i:2:p:165-185
    DOI: 10.1080/136698798377240
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roughgarden, Tim & Schneider, Stephen H., 1999. "Climate change policy: quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal carbon taxes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 415-429, July.
    2. Bell, Kathleen P. & Crandall, Mindy & Munroe, Darla K. & Colocousis, Chris & Morzillo, Anita, 2018. "Rural forest-based communities, economic shocks, and economic trajectories," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274499, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Stephen H. Schneider, 1998. "The Climate for Greenhouse Policy in the U.S. and the Incorporation of Uncertainties into Integrated Assessments," Energy & Environment, , vol. 9(4), pages 425-440, June.
    5. F. Chapin & Steward Pickett & Mary Power & Robert Jackson & David Carter & Clifford Duke, 2011. "Earth stewardship: a strategy for social–ecological transformation to reverse planetary degradation," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 44-53, March.
    6. Elizabeth A. Casman & M. Granger Morgan & Hadi Dowlatabadi, 1999. "Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 33-42, February.
    7. Edward A. Parson, 2007. "The Big One: A Review of Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 147-213, March.

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