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The implication of extreme events on policy responses

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  • Urs Steiner Brandt

Abstract

This paper considers a situation where a real risk exists that requires precautions, but the public mostly experiences the risk through infrequently occurring extreme events; this type of risk includes risk from climate change, international terrorism, natural calamities or financial crises. The analysis shows that if a risk-mitigating policy is based on the perceived riskiness of that risk, it will call for disproportionate responses (compared to what the 'real' risk suggests) by either under- or over-investing in risk-reducing policies, depending on the characteristics of the problem, implying significant volatility in the policy response. This type of response provides at least three challenges to society: policy cycles where implementation lags behind the actual change in risk, a lock-in to inefficient technologies and additional costs. Finally, this paper addresses the question of how the above-mentioned challenges can be managed through proper risk communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Urs Steiner Brandt, 2014. "The implication of extreme events on policy responses," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 221-240, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:17:y:2014:i:2:p:221-240
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2013.794151
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    Cited by:

    1. Urs Steiner Brandt & Gert Tinggaard Svendsen, 2019. "How robust is the welfare state when facing open borders? An evolutionary game-theoretic model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 179-195, January.
    2. Cai, Mei-Ling & Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Li, Sai-Ping & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Ren, Fei, 2022. "New volatility evolution model after extreme events," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Javier Cano & Alessandro Pollini & Lorenzo Falciani & Uğur Turhan, 2016. "Modeling current and emerging threats in the airport domain through adversarial risk analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 894-912, August.

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