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A decision analytic approach for technology portfolio prioritization: aviation safety applications

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  • Varun Sharma
  • David W. Coit
  • Ahmet Oztekin
  • James T. Luxhøj

Abstract

A decision analytic approach for evaluating new aviation safety products and technologies is developed and demonstrated to consolidate five existing program assessment metrics to develop a unified metric that simultaneously considers the relative importance and contribution of each. This allows for a meaningful and objective evaluation and comparison of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) advanced aeronautical products and technologies. The resulting decision model is referred to as the Composite Program Assessment Score (CPAS). The CPAS includes the five existing metrics; technical development risk, implementation risk, fatal accident rate reduction, safety benefits and cost, and safety risk reduction, which are each defined and quantified by different sources. The CPAS involves the scaling and combination of these individual metrics. In this paper, two alternative combinatorial modeling approaches to calculate the CPAS are presented. The weighted sum model and an additive value theory model are compared and contrasted. The resulting CPAS metrics allow an overall comparison of all 48 of the NASA AvSP products and technologies. Currently CPAS is based on preliminary weight measures from subject matter experts to reflect the relative importance of each metric. Actual case studies of both linear and non-linear value functions are demonstrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Varun Sharma & David W. Coit & Ahmet Oztekin & James T. Luxhøj, 2009. "A decision analytic approach for technology portfolio prioritization: aviation safety applications," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 843-864, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:12:y:2009:i:6:p:843-864
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870902970236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
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    1. Peter Neuhäusler & Torben Schubert & Rainer Frietsch & Knut Blind, 2016. "Managing portfolio risk in strategic technology management: evidence from a panel data-set of the world's largest R&D performers," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 651-667, October.
    2. Neuhäusler , Peter & Schubert, Torben & Frietsch , Rainer & Blind , Knut, 2015. "Managing Portfolio Risk in Strategic Technology Management: Evidence from a Panel Data Set of the World’s Largest R&D Performers," Papers in Innovation Studies 2015/41, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.

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