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Is e-commerce an investment risk priced by retail real estate investors? An investigation

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  • Carina Kaiser
  • Julia Freybote

Abstract

Over the last 20 years, online shopping has evolved into a major threat to the physical retail store. We investigate whether retail real estate investors price e-commerce as an investment risk. In particular, we analyse whether e-commerce sales have informative value for retail real estate returns. Focusing on institutional-grade shopping centres over the period of 2000 to 2018, we find that e-commerce sales predict total returns in the next quarter. This effect is driven by capital returns, which suggests that e-commerce is indeed priced as an investment risk. While consistent across mall types, this effect is stronger for regional and super-regional malls than neighbourhood and community shopping centres. Explanations for this difference include the types of retail tenants in these different mall categories and the varying impact of e-commerce on their business.

Suggested Citation

  • Carina Kaiser & Julia Freybote, 2022. "Is e-commerce an investment risk priced by retail real estate investors? An investigation," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 197-214, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:39:y:2022:i:3:p:197-214
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2021.1996447
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