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Refining the real estate pricing model

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  • Neil Crosby
  • Cath Jackson
  • Allison Orr

Abstract

Investment theory dictates that capitalisation (cap) rates for freehold real estate should be determined by the risk-free nominal rate of return plus the risk premium (RP) less the expected growth rate, with an allowance for depreciation. However, importing the concept of the RP from the capital markets fails to guide investors through the complexities of the asset, or enable exploration of purchaser preferences and behaviour. A refined pricing model for real estate is proposed, based on a concept termed a risk scale, to distinguish between macro (market) and micro (stock) determinants of risk and growth within the RP. This pricing model is estimated for a major global investment market, using a cross-sectional inter-temporal framework, with a data-set of 497 transactions in the London office sector over 2010 Q2–2012 Q3. Average cap rates are estimated at just over 5%, with asset-specific attributes dominating yield determination, with submarket quality and tenant covenant most important; and unexpired term insignificant, surprising during the ‘flight to safety’ characterising the period. International investors bought at lower cap rates, despite the ongoing economic and financial instability of the study period. Improving understanding of pricing behaviour and market transparency is important and may be advanced through the pricing model.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Crosby & Cath Jackson & Allison Orr, 2016. "Refining the real estate pricing model," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 332-358, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:33:y:2016:i:4:p:332-358
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2016.1237539
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    Cited by:

    1. Stanimira Milcheva & Bing Zhu, 2018. "Asset pricing, spatial linkages and contagion in real estate stocks," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 271-295, October.
    2. Steven Devaney & David Scofield, 2017. "Do ‘foreigners’ pay more? The effects of investor type and nationality on office transaction prices in New York City," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Melanie Zhang & Steven Devaney & Anupam Nanda, 2018. "Strategic Alliance and Submarket Choices of Commercial Real Estate Investors – A Multinomial Approach," ERES eres2018_210, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    4. Steven Devaney & David Scofield & Fangchen Zhang, 2019. "Only the Best? Exploring Cross-Border Investor Preferences in US Gateway Cities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 490-513, October.

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