IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jpropr/v14y1997i3p237-255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A critique of a local property forecasting model

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Morrison

Abstract

This paper critically evaluates a model produced by the Department of Land Economy and PA Cambridge Economic Consultants which forecast demand and supply floorspace changes in Kent's commercial property markets. First, it sets out the conceptual framework adopted, and then how floorspace-demand forecasts were constructed and compared to the supply pipeline for each sub-region in Kent. Second, it considers the problems of measuring the selected variables and predicting future changes, in particular the way gross domestic product is measured and projected forward; the reliability of floorspace/employment ratios; and how to distinguish new build requirements from net change in stock. It concludes that the assumptions concerning future changes in these key relationships are fundamental to the accuracy of this type of forecasting model, and that qualitative research may improve our understanding of these relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Morrison, 1997. "A critique of a local property forecasting model," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 237-255, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:14:y:1997:i:3:p:237-255
    DOI: 10.1080/095999197368627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/095999197368627
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/095999197368627?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:14:y:1997:i:3:p:237-255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJPR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.