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Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Local Projections

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  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Byoungchan Lee

Abstract

We propose and study properties of an estimator of the forecast error variance decomposition in the local projections framework. We find for empirically relevant sample sizes that, after being bias-corrected with bootstrap, our estimator performs well in simulations. We also illustrate the workings of our estimator empirically for monetary policy and productivity shocks. KEYWORDS: Forecast error variance decomposition; Local projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Byoungchan Lee, 2020. "Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Local Projections," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 921-933, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:38:y:2020:i:4:p:921-933
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2019.1610661
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    Cited by:

    1. Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
    2. Diego R. Känzig & Maximilian Konradt, 2024. "Climate Policy and the Economy: Evidence from Europe’s Carbon Pricing Initiatives," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1081-1124, September.
    3. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2024. "Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2022. "Instrumental Variable Identification of Dynamic Variance Decompositions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(8), pages 2164-2202.
    6. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models," Papers 2312.06402, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    7. Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2022. "Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Nathan, Daniel & Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2022. "Shorting the Dollar When Global Stock Markets Roar: The Equity Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," MPRA Paper 112909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Klein, Mathias & Pessoa, Sofia, 2022. "The Political Costs of Austerity," Working Paper Series 418, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona & Van Robays, Ine, 2023. "China’s footprint in global financial markets," Working Paper Series 2861, European Central Bank.
    11. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    12. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. ChaeWon Baek & Byoungchan Lee, 2022. "A Guide to Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models for Impulse Response Estimations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1101-1122, October.
    14. Bigerna, Simona & D'Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo & Simshauer, Paul, 2022. "Renewable energy and portfolio volatility spillover effects of GCC oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 114164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chen, Yong & Fang, Jing & Liu, Dingming, 2023. "The effects of Trump’s trade war on U.S. financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Miles, William & Zhu, Xiaoyang, 2023. "Housing and the changing impact of monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 587-603.
    17. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 273-299, April.
    18. Gertjan Vlieghe, 2024. "Core Strength: International Evidence on the Impact of Energy Prices on Core Inflation," Discussion Papers 2407, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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