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Implied Volatility Spreads and Expected Market Returns

Author

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  • Yigit Atilgan
  • Turan G. Bali
  • K. Ozgur Demirtas

Abstract

This article investigates the intertemporal relation between volatility spreads and expected returns on the aggregate stock market. We provide evidence for a significantly negative link between volatility spreads and expected returns at the daily and weekly frequencies. We argue that this link is driven by the information flow from option markets to stock markets. The documented relation is significantly stronger for the periods during which (i) S&P 500 constituent firms announce their earnings; (ii) cash flow and discount rate news are large in magnitude; and (iii) consumer sentiment index takes extreme values. The intertemporal relation remains strongly negative after controlling for conditional volatility, variance risk premium, and macroeconomic variables. Moreover, a trading strategy based on the intertemporal relation with volatility spreads has higher portfolio returns compared to a passive strategy of investing in the S&P 500 index, after transaction costs are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Yigit Atilgan & Turan G. Bali & K. Ozgur Demirtas, 2015. "Implied Volatility Spreads and Expected Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 87-101, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:33:y:2015:i:1:p:87-101
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.923776
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen Gu & Xu Guo & Alexander Kurov & Raluca Stan, 2022. "The information content of the volatility index options trading volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1721-1737, September.
    2. Xiaolan Jia & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2021. "The implied volatility smirk of commodity options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 72-104, January.
    3. Arısoy, Yakup Eser & Altay-Salih, Aslıhan & Akdeniz, Levent, 2015. "Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 231-253.
    4. Ding, Wenjie & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Qingwei, 2021. "Volatility timing, sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-56.
    5. Ni, Zhongxin & Wang, Linyu & Li, Weishu, 2021. "Do fund managers time implied tail risk? — Evidence from Chinese mutual funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy & Xiao, Han, 2020. "Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Xu, Lai, 2015. "Tail risk premia and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-134.
    9. Cao, Charles & Simin, Timothy & Xiao, Han, 2019. "Predicting the equity premium with the implied volatility spread," MPRA Paper 103651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tarun Chordia & Alexander Kurov & Dmitriy Muravyev & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2021. "The joint cross section of stocks and options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1758-1778, March.
    11. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    12. Alejandro Bernales & Thanos Verousis & Nikolaos Voukelatos & Mengyu Zhang, 2020. "What do we know about individual equity options?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 67-91, January.
    13. Osman Kilic & Joseph M. Marks & Kiseok Nam, 2022. "Predictable asset price dynamics, risk-return tradeoff, and investor behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 749-791, August.
    14. Oleg Kucher & Alexander Kurov & Marketa Halova Wolfe, 2023. "A shot in the arm: The effect of COVID‐19 vaccine news on financial and commodity markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 575-596, August.
    15. Bing Han & Gang Li, 2021. "Information Content of Aggregate Implied Volatility Spread," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1249-1269, February.
    16. Hardeep Singh Mundi, 2023. "Risk neutral variances to compute expected returns using data from S&P BSE 100 firms—a replication study," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 215-230, February.
    17. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2019. "Moment spreads in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 598-609.
    18. Jia, Xiaolan & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2023. "Carr and Wu’s (2020) framework in the oil ETF option market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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