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Identifying macro-determinants of remittance flows to a developing country: The case of Uganda

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  • Andrew Ojede
  • Eddery Lam
  • Nicholas Okot

Abstract

This paper employs minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests for endogenous structural breaks combined with ARCH and GARCH models to investigate how key macrovariables impact diaspora remittances. Since remittances can reverse-cause exchange rate movements and domestic income, we use changes in the world price of oil denominated in U.S. dollars to proxy movements in the Uganda shilling nominal effective exchange rate. To control for endogenous bias between remittances and income, we use rainfall shocks as proxies for income shocks in a non-oil-producing developing economy dominated by agricultural sector and its related activities. In addition, large movements in oil price and rainfall shocks typically cause large supply shocks that can significantly impact size of remittance inflows. We control for interest rate differential, political business cycles and seasonality. Results indicate that accounting for structural change in intercepts (levels) and slopes (trends) of key macroeconomic determinants of remittances around their major structural break points significantly increases their explanatory power. In particular, positive (negative) innovations in income and depreciation (appreciation) in the currency of a recipient developing country are negatively (positively) correlated with remittance inflows. These results are robust across different model specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ojede & Eddery Lam & Nicholas Okot, 2019. "Identifying macro-determinants of remittance flows to a developing country: The case of Uganda," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 429-451, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:28:y:2019:i:4:p:429-451
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2018.1546336
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    Cited by:

    1. Angana Parashar SARMA & Muniyor KRISHNA, 2024. "Causal Nexus Between Remittance Inflow And Its Determinants, 1998-2020: Evidence From The South And Southeast Asian Lmics," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 24(1), pages 97-120.
    2. Anthony Enisan Akinlo & Michael Segun Ojo, 2021. "Examining the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on remittances inflows: evidence from Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Abbas, Shujaat, 2020. "Impact of oil prices on remittances to Pakistan from GCC countries: evidence from panel asymmetric analysis," MPRA Paper 107246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thanh Dinh Su & Canh Phuc Nguyen, 2022. "Foreign financial flows, human capital and economic growth in African developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3010-3031, July.
    5. P. Jijin & Alok Kumar Mishra & M. Nithin, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of remittances to India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1229-1248, May.
    6. Md. Qamruzzaman, 2023. "Does Environmental Degradation-Led Remittances Flow? Nexus between Environmental Degradation, Uncertainty, Financial Inclusion and Remittances Inflows in India and China," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 9-26, March.

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