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Current account sustainability in Latin America

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  • Vicente Donoso
  • Victor Martin

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of the current account deficit in eighteen Latin American countries through the analysis of the stationarity properties of the current account balance. First, we apply traditional unit root tests and consider the possibility of structural breaks. Second, since the current account may have a nonlinear behaviour, we test for linearity in the data and analyse current account stationarity by means of a recently developed nonlinear unit root test. Results from linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that current account sustainability is supported for the majority of Latin American countries with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Paraguay. For the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela the current account dynamics are best described by a stationary linear model, and by a stationary linear model with a mean shift in years 2003, 1982 and 1980 in Bolivia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, respectively. In the case of Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, results show that the current account is best described by a mean-reverting nonlinear process.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicente Donoso & Victor Martin, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Latin America," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 735-753, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:23:y:2014:i:5:p:735-753
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2013.775322
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    1. Corden, W. Max, 1995. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226115917, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Santosh Kumar Dash, 2017. "Analyzing Current Account Sustainability through the Saving-Investment Correlation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2860-2870.
    2. Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 1937-1947.
    3. Alberto Rinaldi & Barbara Pistoresi, 2014. "A note on Italy's current account sustainability: 1861-2010," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 1197-1204.
    4. Yersh, Valeryia, 2020. "Current account sustainability and capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries," MPRA Paper 105440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Amba Oyon Claude Marius & Taoufiki Mbratana & Kane Gilles Quentin, 2017. "Assessing the current account sustainability in ECCAS economies: A dual cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1873-1894.
    6. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.

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