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Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry-level export: Panel cointegration analysis

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  • Saban Nazlioglu

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of the exchange rate volatility on Turkey's export. To this end, the panel cointegration analysis is applied to the data from Turkey's top 20 export industries to major 20 trading partners for the period 1980-2009. Special attention is paid to test for whether employment of country-level trade data instead of industry-level data is subject to the aggregation bias problem in the estimation of long-run cointegration parameters. The results indicate that employing country-level trade data suffers from the aggregation bias in estimating the cointegration parameters for the level of exchange rate and for the exchange rate volatility. The findings imply that (i) the impact of the exchange rate volatility on Turkish exports differs across industries, (ii) Turkey benefits from the depreciation of Turkish lira, and(iii) the foreign income plays a key role in determining the Turkish industry-level exports. The findings increase our insights to explain therecent dynamics of Turkish exports and provide some policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Saban Nazlioglu, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkish industry-level export: Panel cointegration analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 1088-1107, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:22:y:2013:i:7:p:1088-1107
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.660978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pinar Ozbay, 1999. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports a case study on Turkey," Discussion Papers 9903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Bulent GULOGLU, 2008. "Exports and Volatility of Exchange Rate Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes:The Case of Turkey," EcoMod2008 23800047, EcoMod.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Engin AKMAN, 2016. "Impacts Of Euro/Usd Volatility On Steel Prices Of Turkey," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    3. Ferdi Akpilic & Caglayan Aslan, 2024. "The impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on exports by technology classification in emerging economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 907-931, October.
    4. Gökhan KARTAL, 2019. "An Application on The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility Occurring Recently in Turkey on The Foreign Trade: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.
    5. Sinan Erdogan & Ali Acaravci, 2022. "On the Nexus Between Institutions and Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan African Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(4), pages 1857-1892, August.
    6. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    7. Adiguzel, Ugur & Sahbaz, Ahmet & Ozcan, Ceyhun Can & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "The behavior of Turkish exchange rates: A panel data perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 177-185.
    8. Ali Acaravci & Seyfettin Artan & Pinar Hayaloglu & Sinan Erdogan, 2023. "Economic and Institutional Determinants of Corruption: The Case of Developed and Developing Countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 207-231, March.

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