The impact of land resource mismatch and environmental regulation on carbon emissions: evidence from China

Municipalities’ inefficient use of land resources may influence local carbon emissions. The spatial Durbin model is utilized for analysis to look at the direct effect of land resource mismatch on carbon emissions, as well as the spatial spillover effect. The moderating effect model and the threshold effect model are used, respectively, to investigate the moderating and threshold effects of environmental regulation in land resource mismatch affecting carbon emissions. Panel data gathered from China’s prefecture-level cities between 2011 and 2021 are the foundation for this research. The results indicate that: (1) the mismatch of land resources will significantly increase the carbon emissions of local and adjacent areas. (2) Environmental regulation has a significant negative moderating effect on local carbon emissions caused by land resource mismatch. That is, environmental regulation can improve the environmental quality brought by land resource mismatch. (3) The mismatch of land resources presents a significant threshold effect on carbon emissions. When the intensity of environmental regulation reaches a certain threshold, the positive promotion effect of land resource mismatch on carbon emissions shows a decreasing marginal effect. Therefore, the government should keep advancing land marketization reform, strengthen environmental regulation, and create an interactive mechanism for regional cooperation in pollution prevention and control to improve regional environmental quality and promote carbon emission reduction.