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Soil erosion vulnerability under scenarios of climate land-use changes after the development of a large reservoir in a semi-arid area

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  • Vera Ferreira
  • André Samora-Arvela
  • Thomas Panagopoulos

Abstract

Climate and land-use/cover changes (LUCC) influence soil erosion vulnerability in the semi-arid region of Alqueva, threatening the reservoir storage capacity and sustainability of the landscape. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study was to investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. A multi-agent system combining Markov cellular automata with multi-criteria evaluation was used to investigate LUCC scenarios according to delineated regional strategies. Forecasting scenarios indicated that the intensive agricultural area as well as the sparse and xerophytic vegetation and rainfall-runoff erosivity would increase, consequently causing the soil erosion to rise from 1.78 Mg ha-super-−1 to 3.65 Mg ha-super-−1 by 2100. A backcasting scenario was investigated by considering the application of soil conservation practices that would decrease the soil erosion considerably to an average of 2.27 Mg ha-super-−1. A decision support system can assist stakeholders in defining restrictive practices and developing conservation plans, contributing to control the reservoir's siltation.

Suggested Citation

  • Vera Ferreira & André Samora-Arvela & Thomas Panagopoulos, 2016. "Soil erosion vulnerability under scenarios of climate land-use changes after the development of a large reservoir in a semi-arid area," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(7), pages 1238-1256, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:59:y:2016:i:7:p:1238-1256
    DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1066667
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Thomas Panagopoulos & Elham Rafiei Sardooi, 2019. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta, 2021. "Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Sisto, Roberta & Fernández-Portillo, Luis A. & Yazdani, Morteza & Estepa-Mohedano, Lorenzo & Torkayesh, Ali Ebadi, 2022. "Strategic planning of rural areas: Integrating participatory backcasting and multiple criteria decision analysis tools," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    4. Hamed Ahmadpour & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Elham Rafiei-Sardooi & Hossein Zamani & Thomas Panagopoulos, 2021. "Gully Erosion Susceptibility Assessment in the Kondoran Watershed Using Machine Learning Algorithms and the Boruta Feature Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Hérivaux, C. & Vinatier, F. & Sabir, M. & Guillot, F. & Rinaudo, J.D., 2021. "Combining narrative scenarios, local knowledge and land-use change modelling for integrating soil erosion in a global perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

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