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The Great Recession or progressive energy policies? Explaining the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts

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  • Hal T. Nelson
  • David von Hippel
  • Tom Peterson
  • Roman Garagulagian

Abstract

This paper evaluates the causes of the 23% decline in 2030 US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts between 2007 and 2011. Dynamic regression modeling predicts that the Great Recession contributed to about 67% of the 2008--2009 emissions decline, but then fell to about an 18% share for the 2030 emissions forecast. An analysis of electricity generation forecasts show that switching from coal to gas contributed only 6% to the total 2030 decline. In contrast, regulatory impact assessments and policy analysis showed that state and federal policies were responsible for 46% of the 2030 decline in emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hal T. Nelson & David von Hippel & Tom Peterson & Roman Garagulagian, 2016. "The Great Recession or progressive energy policies? Explaining the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(3), pages 480-500, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:59:y:2016:i:3:p:480-500
    DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2015.1017042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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