Evaluating the greenhouse gas reduction benefits of compact housing development

Regional land use and transportation planning influences energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a number of ways, such as through its effect on vehicle miles travelled and the extension of municipal infrastructure to serve newly developed areas. Planning regulations also help to shape the density and form of residential development, which creates opportunities for energy savings, as more compact housing types (attached homes and apartments) use less energy, on average, than single-family detached units. This study uses micro-data from the US Department of Energy's Residential Energy Consumption survey to estimate future residential energy use for space heating and cooling in Virginia's 10 Census-designated metropolitan regions. It then calculates the effect of four residential development scenarios on that energy demand and resulting GHG emissions. Potential GHG emission reductions of approximately 23% are found between the most conservative and aggressive scenarios. The greatest potential energy savings are found in regions that currently have a relatively low share of compact housing types, particularly those that also have relatively cold winters compared to the state's other regions. These factors, along with the distribution of home heating fuels used (electric vs. natural gas), influence the extent of potential GHG emissions reductions.