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Estimating the Effects of Climate Shocks on Collective Violence: ARDL Evidence from India

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  • Partha Gangopadhyay
  • Rahul Nilakantan

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationship between climate shocks and collective violence in India using annual data over the period 1954–2006. We use the ARDL bounds testing approach to deal with problems of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of key variables. Rather than rainfall, we find that it is maximum temperature that has long and short run effects on collective violence, with unidirectional causality from temperature shocks to riots. A one standard deviation increase in maximum temperature over the long run average increases the number of riots by 55 per cent. Return to long run equilibrium after a temperature shock takes approximately 15 years. The insignificance of rainfall holds whether we consider rainfall levels or rainfall growth. Given the absence of long run relationships between income levels /growth and riots, it is unlikely that the income channel is the one through which climate affects riots in India. Instead, the evidence suggests a psychological channel through which temperature affects riots in India, with hotter temperatures being associated with increased levels of aggression.

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  • Partha Gangopadhyay & Rahul Nilakantan, 2018. "Estimating the Effects of Climate Shocks on Collective Violence: ARDL Evidence from India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 441-456, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:54:y:2018:i:3:p:441-456
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2016.1269890
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    Cited by:

    1. Ujjal Kumar Mukherjee & Benjamin E. Bagozzi & Snigdhansu Chatterjee, 2023. "A Bayesian framework for studying climate anomalies and social conflicts," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), March.
    2. Chen, Hong & Singh, Baljeet, 2018. "Impacts of Disaggregate Energy Prices on Disaggregate Energy CO2 Emissions: Evidence from China," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 126-143.
    3. Partha Gangopadhyay & Siddharth Jain & Agung Suwandaru, 2020. "What Drives Urbanisation in Modern Cambodia? Some Counter-Intuitive Findings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Siddharth Jain & Partha Gangopadhyay, 2020. "Impacts of Endogenous Sunk-Cost Investment on the Islamic Banking Industry: A Historical Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2020. "The asymmetric relationships between pollution, energy use and oil prices in Vietnam: Some behavioural implications for energy policy-making," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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