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Estimating poverty dynamics using synthetic panels for IFAD-supported projects: a case study from Vietnam

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  • Alessandra Garbero

Abstract

The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has committed to a poverty reduction target of 80 million people moved out of poverty between 2010 and 2015 through IFAD-supported programmes. The IFAD9 impact evaluation initiative was launched to quantify the target and demonstrate improved accountability, development effectiveness and facilitate learning within the organisation. Specifically, 26 rigorous retrospective impact evaluations are being conducted employing quasi-experimental designs. This paper describes the IFAD9 impact evaluation initiative and illustrates the methodology currently being developed by the IFAD Statistics and Studies for Development Division to estimate the target. This methodology is currently being piloted through in-house econometric analyses, and consists of combining synthetic panels with quasi-experimental methods such as difference-in-difference matching estimators. Synthetic panels overcome the limitation of having to estimate poverty dynamics without real panel data and provide lower and upper bounds estimates of poverty dynamics and mobility. A case study of a project in Vietnam is presented to illustrate the methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Garbero, 2014. "Estimating poverty dynamics using synthetic panels for IFAD-supported projects: a case study from Vietnam," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 490-510, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:490-510
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2014.981954
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw, 2018. "Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012: Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 131-170.
    2. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Elena Ianchovichina, 2018. "Welfare Dynamics With Synthetic Panels: The Case of the Arab World In Transition," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(s1), pages 114-144, October.
    3. Federica Alfani & Fabio Clementi & Michele Fabiani & Vasco Molini & Enzo Valentini, 2023. "Once NEET, always NEET? A synthetic panel approach to analyze the Moroccan labor market," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 2401-2437, November.
    4. Garbero, Alessandra & Songsermsawas, Tisorn, 2017. "How Much have Agricultural Projects Contributed to Economic Mobility and Food Security in China?," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258097, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Dang,Hai-Anh H., 2018. "To impute or not to impute ? a review of alternative poverty estimation methods in the context of unavailable consumption data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8403, The World Bank.
    6. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Kilic,Talip & Carletto,Calogero & Abanokova,Kseniya, 2021. "Poverty Imputation in Contexts without Consumption Data : A Revisit with Further Refinements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9838, The World Bank.
    7. Garbero, A. & Perge, E., 2017. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 19 - Measuring women's empowerment in agriculture: a streamlined approach," IFAD Research Series 280057, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    8. Morteza Ghomi, 2022. "Who is afraid of sanctions? The macroeconomic and distributional effects of the sanctions against Iran," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 395-428, July.
    9. Hai‐Anh Dang & Dean Jolliffe & Calogero Carletto, 2019. "Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, And Data Imputation: A Review Of Poverty Measurement Methods For Data‐Scarce Environments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 757-797, July.
    10. Garbero, A., 2016. "IFAD RESEARCH SERIES 7 - Measuring IFAD’s impact: background paper to the IFAD9 Impact Assessment Initiative," IFAD Research Series 280045, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

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