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Representing theories of change: technical challenges with evaluation consequences

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  • Rick Davies

Abstract

This paper looks at the technical issues associated with the representation of Theories of Change and the implications of design choices for the evaluability of those theories. The focus is on the description of connections between events rather than the events themselves, because this is seen as a widespread design weakness. Using examples and evidence from Internet sources six structural problems are described along with their consequences for evaluation. The paper then outlines a range of different ways of addressing these problems that could be used by programme designers, implementers and evaluators. The paper concludes with some caution speculating on why the design problems are so endemic but also pointing a way forward. Four strands of work are identified that CEDIL and DFID could invest in to develop solutions identified in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Rick Davies, 2018. "Representing theories of change: technical challenges with evaluation consequences," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 438-461, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:438-461
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2018.1526202
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Chapman & Adiilah Boodhoo & Carren Duffy & Suki Goodman & Maria Michalopoulou, 2023. "Theory of Change in Complex Research for Development Programmes: Challenges and Solutions from the Global Challenges Research Fund," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(2), pages 298-322, April.
    2. Marina Apgar & Mieke Snijder & Grace Lyn Higdon & Sylvia Szabo, 2023. "Evaluating Research for Development: Innovation to Navigate Complexity," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(2), pages 241-259, April.
    3. Dana Rad & Gavril Rad, 2021. "Theory of Change in Digital Behavior Change Interventions (Dbcis) And Community-Based Change Initiatives - A General Framework," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 21(1), pages 554-569, July.
    4. Peterson, Christina & Skolits, Gary, 2019. "Evaluating unintended program outcomes through Ripple Effects Mapping (REM): Application of REM using grounded theory," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Gates, Emily & Rohn, Kathy Chau & Murugaiah, Kiruba, 2024. "Equity-related ‘knots’ in theory of change development: Conceptualization and case illustrations," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

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