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Model selection for stock prices data

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  • Pedro P. Mota
  • Manuel L. Esquível

Abstract

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is very popular in modeling the dynamics of stock prices. However, the constant volatility assumption is questionable and many models with nonconstant volatility have been developed. In the papers [7,12] the authors introduce a regime switching process where in each regime the process is driven by GBM and the change in regime is defined by the crossing of a threshold. In this paper we used Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria to show that the GBM with regimes provides a better fit than the GBM. We also perform a forecasting comparison of the models for two selected companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro P. Mota & Manuel L. Esquível, 2016. "Model selection for stock prices data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2977-2987, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:43:y:2016:i:16:p:2977-2987
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2016.1155205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    2. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    4. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Weba, 2024. "Investment strategies based on forecasts are (almost) useless," Papers 2408.01772, arXiv.org.
    2. Manuel L. Esquível & Nadezhda P. Krasii & Pedro P. Mota & Victoria V. Shamraeva, 2023. "Coupled Price–Volume Equity Models with Auto-Induced Regime Switching," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Endres, Sylvia & Stübinger, Johannes, 2018. "A flexible regime switching model with pairs trading application to the S&P 500 high-frequency stock returns," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 07/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    4. Amit K. Sinha, 2021. "The reliability of geometric Brownian motion forecasts of S&P500 index values," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1444-1462, December.

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