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Evidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votes using Bayesian hierarchical models

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  • Marta Blangiardo
  • Gianluca Baio

Abstract

The Eurovision Song Contest is an annual musical competition held among active members of the European Broadcasting Union since 1956. The event is televised live across Europe. Each participating country presents a song and receive a vote based on a combination of tele-voting and jury. Over the years, this has led to speculations of tactical voting, discriminating against some participants and thus inducing bias in the final results. In this paper we investigate the presence of positive or negative bias (which may roughly indicate favouritisms or discrimination) in the votes based on geographical proximity, migration and cultural characteristics of the participating countries through a Bayesian hierarchical model. Our analysis found no evidence of negative bias, although mild positive bias does seem to emerge systematically, linking voters to performers.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Blangiardo & Gianluca Baio, 2014. "Evidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votes using Bayesian hierarchical models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 2312-2322, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:41:y:2014:i:10:p:2312-2322
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.909792
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander V. Mantzaris & Samuel R. Rein & Alexander D. Hopkins, 2018. "Preference and neglect amongst countries in the Eurovision Song Contest," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 377-390, September.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:4:p:415-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Millner, Ralf & Stoetzer, Matthias Wolfgang & Fritze, Christina & Günther, Stephanie, 2015. "Fair oder Foul? Punktevergabe und Platzierung beim Eurovision Song Contest," Jena Contributions to Economic Research 2015/2, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena – University of Applied Sciences, Department of Business Administration.
    4. Evgeny A. Antipov & Elena B. Pokryshevskaya, 2017. "Order effects in the results of song contests: Evidence from the Eurovision and the New Wave," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(4), pages 415-419, July.
    5. P. Battiston & M. Magnani & D. Paolini & L. Rossi, 2024. "Country vs. Music: Strategic Incentives for Competing Voters," Economics Department Working Papers 2024-EP02, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    6. Budzinski, Oliver & Gänßle, Sophia & Weimar, Daniel, 2023. "Disentangling individual biases in jury voting: An empirical analysis of voting behavior in the Eurovision Song Contest," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 171, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.

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