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Quick counts from non-selected polling stations

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Manuel Pavia-Miralles
  • Beatriz Larraz-Iribas

Abstract

Countless examples of misleading forecasts on behalf of both campaign and exit polls affecting, among others, British, French, and Spanish elections could be found. This has seriously damaged their image. Therefore, procedures should be used that minimize errors, especially on election night when errors are more noticeable, in order to maintain people's trust in surveys. This paper proposes a method to obtain quick and early outcome forecasts on the election night. The idea is to partly sample some (whatever) polling stations and use the consistency that polling stations show between elections to predict the final results. Model accuracy is analysed through simulation using seven different types of samples in four elections. The efficacy of the technique is also tested predicting the 2005 Eusko Legebiltzarra elections from real data. Results confirm that the procedure generates highly reliable and accurate forecasts. Furthermore, compared with the classical quick count strategy, the method is revealed as much more robust and precise.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Manuel Pavia-Miralles & Beatriz Larraz-Iribas, 2008. "Quick counts from non-selected polling stations," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 383-405.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:35:y:2008:i:4:p:383-405
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760701834881
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Pavia, Jose M., 2010. "Improving predictive accuracy of exit polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 68-81, January.

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