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Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality

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  • Peter Congdon

Abstract

This paper considers the modelling of mortality rates classified by age, time, and small area with a view to developing life table parameters relevant to assessing trends in inequalities in life chances. In particular, using a fully Bayes perspective, one may assess the stochastic variation in small area life table parameters, such as life expectancies, and also formally assess whether trends in indices of inequality in mortality are significant. Modelling questions include choice between random walk priors for age and time effects as against non-linear regression functions, questions of identifiability when several random effects are present in the death rates model, and the choice of model when both within and out-of-sample performance may be important. A case study application involves 44 small areas in North East London and mortality in five sub-periods (1986-88, 1989-91, 1992-94, 1995-97, 1998-2000) between 1986 and 2000, with the final period used for assessing out-of-sample performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Congdon, 2004. "Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 603-622.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:31:y:2004:i:6:p:603-622
    DOI: 10.1080/1478881042000214695
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    Cited by:

    1. Longford, Nicholas T., 2010. "Small area estimation with spatial similarity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1151-1166, April.
    2. Martin Gächter & Engelbert Theurl, 2010. "Convergence of the Health Status at the Local Level: Empirical Evidence from Austria," NRN working papers 2010-09, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Chiara Gigliarano & Ugofilippo Basellini & Marco Bonetti, 2017. "Longevity and concentration in survival times: the log-scale-location family of failure time models," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 254-274, April.
    4. Nicholas Longford, 2008. "Small-area estimation with spatial similarity," Economics Working Papers 1105, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2009.

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