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The revenue potential of a financial transaction tax for US financial markets

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  • Robert Pollin
  • James Heintz
  • Thomas Herndon

Abstract

This paper estimates the revenue potential of a financial transaction tax (FTT) for US financial markets. We focus on analyzing the revenue potential of the Inclusive Prosperity Act that was introduced in the US House of Representatives in 2012 and the US Senate in 2015. The tax rates stipulated in this Act include 0.5% (50 basis points (bps)) for all stock transactions, 0.1% (10 bps) for all bond transactions and 0.005% (0.5 bps) on the notional value of all derivative trades. We examine three sets of evidence to generate potential revenue estimates: 1) the levels of transaction costs in US financial markets over time and within the range of financial market segments; 2) the extent of trading elasticities under various trading conditions; and 3) the current level of trading activity in US financial markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that a US FTT operating at the tax rates stated above would generate about $220 billion per year, equal to about 1.2% of the current US GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Pollin & James Heintz & Thomas Herndon, 2018. "The revenue potential of a financial transaction tax for US financial markets," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 772-806, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:32:y:2018:i:6:p:772-806
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2018.1485634
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Garrett & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2022. "Financial transaction taxes and market structure: Lessons from the gambling industry," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 1901-1907.
    2. Emilio Abad-Segura & Mariana-Daniela González-Zamar, 2020. "Global Research Trends in Financial Transactions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Riedl Drew, 2020. "Financing Universal Basic Income: Eliminating Poverty and Bolstering the Middle Class While Addressing Inequality, Economic Rents, and Climate Change," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-34, December.

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