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Forecasting performance of private sector’s unemployment forecasts in advanced economies

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  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

This paper provides a full characterization of unemployment rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of nine advanced economies between 1989 and 2012. It also assesses the performance of unemployment rate forecasts around business cycles’ turning points. We find evidence for biasedness, inefficiency or information rigidities and lack of accuracy of unemployment rate forecasts and the distribution of projection errors appears to be slightly twisted to over-prediction (which decreases during recession episodes). Additionally, there is a sense of ‘pessimism’ among forecasters during recovery periods.

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  • João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Forecasting performance of private sector’s unemployment forecasts in advanced economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 707-733, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:31:y:2017:i:6:p:707-733
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2017.1319469
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    1. Richardson, J., 1997. "Can active labour market policy work? Some theoretical considerations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20354, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jinzhu Chen & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    3. J Richardson, 1997. "Can Active Labour Market Policy Work? Some Theoretical Considerations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0331, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    5. Mr. Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 1996/089, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pincheira, Pablo & Hernández, Ana María, 2019. "Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors," MPRA Paper 97855, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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