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Optimal Betting in Casino Blackjack II: Back-Counting

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  • N. Richard Werthamer

Abstract

The card counting technique known as ‘back-counting’ is treated analytically. The true count at which the back-counter should optimally enter the game is derived, based on maximising his effective yield. That entry count is found to be in the range of +2 to +3 for a typical 6-deck game, depending on the back-counter's risk profile. If he also adopts an ‘exit’ strategy (abandoning play at a table whose true count has dropped below a lower threshold) and optimises the entry and exit counts simultaneously, he can improve his performance slightly further; the optimal exit count is between − 2 and − 3. Because the risk of ruin is very low, he may in addition choose to bet more aggressively than he would if not back-counting—or, conversely, to ‘flat bet’. Criteria are examined for ‘departure’ (abandoning the observation of a table whose true count has yet to reach the entry threshold).

Suggested Citation

  • N. Richard Werthamer, 2006. "Optimal Betting in Casino Blackjack II: Back-Counting," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 111-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intgms:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:111-122
    DOI: 10.1080/14459790600927670
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    Cited by:

    1. N. Richard Werthamer, 2008. "Optimal Betting in Casino Blackjack III: Table-Hopping," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 63-75, April.

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