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Inflation Thresholds and Growth

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  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

Abstract

This paper investigates inflation thresholds that lead to higher growth rates using five-year averages of standard variables for 84 countries from 1965 to 2004. The historical experience has important policy implications for developing countries: (i) the catch-up effect has worked only when inflation is below 12%; (ii) the positive effect of human capital on growth has been present and significant when inflation has been below 15%; (iii) financial development has been effective only when inflation has been below 10%; (iv) government size has negatively affected growth when inflation has been below 10%; (v) trade has positively affected growth when inflation has been below 8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2013. "Inflation Thresholds and Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2012.658831
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Inflationary Thresholds, Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Two West African Countries," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    3. Thang Cong Nguyen & Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Dao Thi-Thieu Ha, 2019. "Financial Development and Income Inequality in Emerging Markets: A New Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Önder, Ali Sina & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 241-258.
    5. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    6. Ooft, Gavin, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Activity in Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215533, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Analysing the sources of growth in an emerging market economy: the Thailand experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 340-359.
    8. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    9. M Arayssi & A Fakih, 2017. "The Finance-Growth Nexus, again: New Evidence from Kenya," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 22(2), pages 33-59, September.
    10. Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar & Anis Chowdhury, 2014. "The IMF and the policy of low inflation: A review of Article IV consultations for selected Asian developing countries," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 25(3), pages 435-454, September.
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    1. Njindan Iyke Bernard & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2017. "Inflationary Thresholds, Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Two West African Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-11, June.
    2. Zheng, Zhijie & Huang, Chien-Yu & Yang, Yibai, 2021. "Inflation And Growth: A Non-Monotonic Relationship In An Innovation-Driven Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1199-1226, July.
    3. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    4. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Inflation and growth: the role of institutions," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 167-187, January.
    5. Ujkani Xheneta & Gara Atdhetar, 2023. "Determinants of the Inflation Rate: Evidence from Panel Data," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 169-182, December.
    6. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    7. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Drivers of Turkish inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 315-323.
    8. Ooft, Gavin, 2016. "Inflation and Economic Activity in Suriname," EconStor Preprints 215533, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(2), June.
    10. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Analysing the sources of growth in an emerging market economy: the Thailand experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 340-359.
    11. Thang Cong Nguyen & Tan Ngoc Vu & Duc Hong Vo & Dao Thi-Thieu Ha, 2019. "Financial Development and Income Inequality in Emerging Markets: A New Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-14, November.
    12. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    13. Mandeya Shelton M.T & Ho Sin-Yu, 2022. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and the Economic Growth Nexus: A Review of the Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 172-190, June.
    14. Önder, Ali Sina & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 241-258.
    15. Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar & Anis Chowdhury, 2014. "The IMF and the policy of low inflation: A review of Article IV consultations for selected Asian developing countries," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 25(3), pages 435-454, September.
    16. Rousseau, Peter L. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2009. "Inflation, financial development, and growth: A trilateral analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 310-324, December.
    17. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

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