IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/hbhfxx/v19y2018i4p421-433.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregate Investor Confidence in the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Meier

Abstract

Overconfidence is one of the most robust findings in the field of behavioral finance, and is associated with excessive trading and risk taking among market participants. Assessment of the level of confidence of individuals in their abilities and skills is well documented. However, the literature lacks an aggregate measure of investor confidence, with this required to test its implications on a macro level. The author introduces a simple measure of aggregate investor confidence by adopting a formal model of overconfidence. The applications of the measure suggest that, in aggregate, higher trading activity occurs when investor confidence soars, particularly for smaller stocks. Subsequently, the effect partially reverses, implying a correction to an initial overreaction. The newly introduced investor confidence index possesses better ability to predict trading activity than past returns, as used in prior studies. Additionally, investors tend to have a higher risk appetite when confident, as shown by increased investment in small stocks with higher risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Meier, 2018. "Aggregate Investor Confidence in the Stock Market," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 421-433, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:19:y:2018:i:4:p:421-433
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2018.1406942
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/15427560.2018.1406942
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/15427560.2018.1406942?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Chen, Rongda & Wu, Ling & Jin, Chenglu & Wang, Shengnan, 2021. "Unintended investor sentiment on bank financial products: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Huang, Wenli & Zhou, Fengbo & Yu, Chenkang & Hu, Yue & Zhang, Hong & Xu, Yueling, 2023. "Momentum effect and contrarian effect in China's A-share market, under registration-based system," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Chen, Rongda & Yu, Jingjing & Jin, Chenglu & Bao, Weiwei, 2019. "Internet finance investor sentiment and return comovement," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 151-161.
    5. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    6. Mohammed H. Alamoudi & Omer A. Bafail, 2022. "BWM—RAPS Approach for Evaluating and Ranking Banking Sector Companies Based on Their Financial Indicators in the Saudi Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Wang, Gaoshan & Yu, Guangjin & Shen, Xiaohong, 2021. "The effect of online environmental news on green industry stocks: The mediating role of investor sentiment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 573(C).
    8. Zhou, Xinxing & Gao, Yan & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2022. "Examining the overconfidence and overreaction in China’s carbon markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 472-489.
    9. Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yang, Lu & Luo, Sijia, 2022. "Information disclosure ratings and continuing overreaction: Evidence from the Chinese capital market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 638-656.
    10. Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain Shah & Xia Xinping & Muhammad Asif Khan & Sinan Abdullah Harjan, 2018. "Investor and Manager Overconfidence Bias and Firm Value: Micro-Level Evidence from the Pakistan Equity Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 190-199.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:19:y:2018:i:4:p:421-433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/hbhf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.