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Are Oil Price News Headlines Statistically and Economically Significant for Investors?

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  • Seema Narayan
  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

Abstract

While much has been written about the effects of oil price on stock returns, surprisingly nothing is known about the effect of oil price news on stock returns. This article is a response to this research gap. For a large number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, the authors find that while oil price news does predict market returns it only predicts returns of some sectors and not all. They find that sorting stocks based on oil price news generates a significant return differential in the cross-section, which holds consistently across a range of models allowing for the well-known risk factors. Their findings suggest that information contained in oil price news affects stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2017. "Are Oil Price News Headlines Statistically and Economically Significant for Investors?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 258-270, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:18:y:2017:i:3:p:258-270
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2017.1308942
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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    2. Alqahtani, Faisal & Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2020. "The influence of oil prices on the banking sector in oil-exporting economies: Is there a psychological barrier?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.
    4. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    5. Wu, Ling & Hock Ow, Siew, 2021. "The Impact of News Sentiment on the Stock Market Fluctuation: The Case of Selected Energy Sector," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(3), pages 1-21.
    6. Xiao Wu, Dong & Yao, Xiao & Luan Guo, Jian, 2021. "Is Textual Tone Informative or Inflated for Firm’s Future Value? Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 513-525.
    7. Wenti Du, 2021. "News and Market Efficiency in the Japanese Stock Market," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 306-319, July.
    8. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2018. "Forecasting the prices of crude oil using the predictor, economic and combined constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 237-245.
    9. Narayan, Seema & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2021. "Can home-biased investors diversify interregionally in the long run?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 167-181.
    10. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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