Dangerous Development: The Effect of Offshore Fossil-Fuel Discovery and Production on Maritime Diplomatic Conflict

How does the discovery and production of offshore fossil-fuel resources influence maritime diplomatic conflict occurrence? Extant studies focus on the management and escalation of militarized interstate maritime conflicts after development leaving a gap in the literature on the effect of potential offshore resources on maritime claim occurrence. I argue that the years after the discovery of offshore fossil-fuel deposits face an increased risk for maritime claim occurrence because of an increase in tangible salience, opportunities to obtain concessions, and uncertainty over resource abundance. In the period after production begins, there is less uncertainty over the resource abundance, but the increased tangible salience and incentives to secure the resources remain, causing there to be a higher risk for maritime diplomatic conflict, albeit lower than the discovery period. Using Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) and PRIO-Grid data, I find that maritime dyads are more likely to experience a maritime claim in the years after the discovery of offshore oil compared to dyad-years with no offshore fossil-fuel discoveries. Offshore fossil fuel’s effect on maritime claim occurrence is stronger in this discovery phase than it is in the production period, indicating distinct mechanisms at work.