Welcome to the Jungle: a research note on leader entry, combat experience, and dispute targeting

A relatively large body of research emphasizes the vital role of the tenure of leaders in explaining conflict behavior. In some accounts, new leaders are more likely to be attacked than their more seasoned counterparts. But are all new leaders equally susceptible to challenge? This research note argues that a key characteristic of leaders – whether or not they have combat experience prior to assuming office – influences their exposure to attacks from abroad. Analyses of dyadic interactions, 1900–2001, reveal that new leaders with combat experience are almost three times more likely to be targeted than leaders without a history of combat. Moreover, while time in office tends to increase the likelihood of conflict involvement generally, for leaders with combat experience, the risk of conflict declines across their tenure.