Reversing Course: Fiscal Policy and Economic Interdependence

In response to the 2008 financial crisis, countries throughout the developed world widely embraced fiscal stimulus policies. But about one year later, with their economies still weak, a majority of these countries reversed course and adopted austerity measures, despite having the ability to maintain fiscal expansions. With little variation in domestic interests, institutions, or political ideologies over this short time period, theories of budgetary politics struggle to explain this policy shift. This shortcoming may be the result of the literature generally ignoring the international effects of fiscal policy. I argue that policymakers strategically consider their trade partners’ likely fiscal policies before setting domestic fiscal policy. If incumbents expect their major trade partners to enact fiscal expansions, they are more likely to pass expansionary policies of their own. But when incumbents expect their counterparts to enact contractionary policies, they are less likely to fund expansionary policies, as these policies may boost foreign economies with suppressed effects at home. I test this argument using spatial econometrics and a data set of OECD countries from 1998 to 2015. The evidence suggests that shifting expectations of fiscal policies abroad explains much of the move from stimulus to austerity over the short time span.