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Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence

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  • David C. Earnest
  • Steve Yetiv
  • Stephen M. Carmel

Abstract

To what extent are states vulnerable to disruptions in trade networks? We investigate this question by simulating attacks on the intermodal shipping network, whose ubiquitous containers carry 80% to 90% of all global trade in goods. While this network has reduced transportation costs and spurred international trade, the dependence of modern economies on ship-borne trade means disruptions in one region may produce considerable costs for states in another region. We simulate an “optimal terrorist” that learns about the conditions under which attacks on the network in other parts of the world generate economic losses to the United States. The study illustrates that by adopting a network- and process-oriented ontology, the study of interdependence may better anticipate new sources of interstate and transnational conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Earnest & Steve Yetiv & Stephen M. Carmel, 2012. "Contagion in the Transpacific Shipping Network: International Networks and Vulnerability Interdependence," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 571-596, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:38:y:2012:i:5:p:571-596
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2012.726151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirzka, Christopher & Acciaro, Michele, 2022. "Global shipping network dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic's initial phases," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Cao, Xinhu & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A fast reaction-based port vulnerability assessment: Case of Tianjin Port explosion," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 11-33.
    3. Marc-Antoine Faure & Bárbara Polo Martin & Fabio Cremaschini & César Ducruet, 2024. "Shipping Trade and Geopolitical Turmoils: The Case of the Ukrainian Maritime Network," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Laure Rousset & César Ducruet, 2020. "Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns," Post-Print halshs-02588551, HAL.
    5. César Ducruet, 2020. "The geography of maritime networks: A critical review," Post-Print halshs-02922543, HAL.
    6. Wu, Di & Yu, Changqing & Zhao, Yannan & Guo, Jialun, 2024. "Changes in vulnerability of global container shipping networks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Laure Rousset & César Ducruet, 2020. "Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 423-447, June.
    8. Ducruet, César, 2020. "The geography of maritime networks: A critical review," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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